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what the polls say about who the public thinks won

  • Written by Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
what the polls say about who the public thinks won

Many people thought that the close relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk would end badly[1], since they both have the hubris that comes from success and power. One is arguably the most powerful politician in the world and the other the richest man.

That said, most people were not prepared for the rapid breakdown in their relationship and the slanging match[2] that took place after Musk spectacularly fell out with the US president. This was magnified by the fact that both have their own influential social media sites (X and Truth Social) and so the divorce was very, very public[3].

More recently Musk has rowed back on the comments he made about Trump after leaving his role as a “special government employee”[4] of the administration[5], and says he went “too far”[6]. But Trump might have a long memory for grievances, so it remains to be seen if the relationship can be patched up.

Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter[7] to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences. What do the American people think? The chart below shows the percentage of respondents with favourable and unfavourable opinions of Trump and Musk in the most recent US Economist/YouGov poll[8] completed on June 9 after the row blew up[9]. It is clear that the most people think that Trump won the contest, giving him a favourability gap (% favourable minus % unfavourable) of minus 10% compared with Musk’s gap of minus 23%[10]. What Americans think of Trump and Musk after their row: Graphs showing public response to Trump V Musk falling out.
Author's graph based on Economist polling., CC BY-SA[11] The demographics of these favourability judgements are particularly interesting. After the row, around 49% of men thought favourably of Trump, compared with 38% of women, continuing a trend that shows more male than female support for the president. But the gender gap for Musk is even wider with 43% men and only 27% women having a favourable view of the billionaire, making the gap 11% for Trump and 16% for Musk. Another interesting demographic is age. Some 35% of 18-to-29 year olds favour Trump (the lowest number of any age group), compared with 30% who favour Musk. The equivalent figures for the over 65s are 45% favouring Trump and 37% Musk. The age divide is wide, with young Americans disliking both more than older Americans, but it is not as wide as the gender gap. The income figures and attitudes to both are surprising. A total of 38% of those with incomes less than US$50,000 (£36,700) a year favour Trump, compared with 51% of those with incomes between US$50,000 and US$100,000. The surprise is that only 42% of those with incomes greater than US$100,000 favour Trump, making affluent Americans closer to the low-income group than to the middle-income group in attitudes to the president. The equivalent figures for Musk are 32% favourable in the US$50,000 group, 39% in the US$50,000 to US$100,000 group and 36% in the US$100,000+ group, which gives a similar picture. If we look at the voting record of the survey respondents in the presidential elections last year, 86% of Trump voters still have a favourable view of him, compared with only 5% of Harris voters. In comparison 67% of Republican voters are favourable to Musk, compared with 10% of Democrats. Equally, 81% of Conservatives favour Trump compared with 67% who favour Musk. Looking at the overall picture Musk is the loser in the row as far as the American public are concerned, and this may in part explain his apparent contrition. The price of Tesla shares (US$) since the presidential election: Graph of Tesla share price since US presidential election.
Author's graph based on data from Yahoo finance., CC BY[12] Overall though, Trump has been gradually losing support on his job approval since the election and the polling shows that 43% of respondents approve and 52% disapprove of his performance as president. We don’t have equivalent figures for Musk, but if we take the stock market price of Tesla shares as a guide to his approval ratings this has declined rapidly over time as the chart shows. On December 17 last year[13] the price was US$480 (£353) per share, compared with US$332 per share on June 11 2025. This represents a fall of about 30%. The dramatic dip at the end of the series is an indicator of how markets have reacted[14] to the spat between them. Following his public break-up with Trump, Musk’s other major company, Space X, is also likely to face fallout[15]. It is a private company and so does not have a share price, but it is heavily dependent on contracts from the US government to keep going. It seems likely that the flow of contracts for space projects is likely to dry up following the row with Trump, as the president has suggested[16]. Overall, Musk has paid a heavy price for becoming such a visible Trump supporter and subsequently falling out with him. And, so far, the public appears to be on Trump’s side. References^ end badly (theconversation.com)^ slanging match (www.bbc.co.uk)^ divorce was very, very public (www.politico.com)^ “special government employee” (www.npr.org)^ the administration (edition.cnn.com)^ “too far” (x.com)^ Sign up to our daily newsletter (theconversation.com)^ Economist/YouGov poll (d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net)^ blew up (www.bbc.co.uk)^ gap of minus 23% (www.realclearpolling.com)^ CC BY-SA (creativecommons.org)^ CC BY (creativecommons.org)^ December 17 last year (www.statmuse.com)^ markets have reacted (www.theguardian.com)^ fallout (www.theguardian.com)^ president has suggested (www.youtube.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/the-big-musk-v-trump-break-up-what-the-polls-say-about-who-the-public-thinks-won-258841

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