Trump’s claim that US debt calculation may be fraudulent could put the economy in danger

The US president, Donald Trump, is challenging^[1] official figures around the country’s federal debt, suggesting possible fraud^[2] in its calculation. The president’s remarks have added a controversial twist to an issue that is both complex and consequential for the United States. And it has implications for the global economy and financial markets too.

US federal debt^[3] is the total amount of money the US government owes from years of borrowing to cover budget deficits (spending beyond its revenues). Over time, this amount has grown significantly, becoming a focal point for political debates and economic forecasts.

The US debt clock^[4] indicates an amount of debt of above US$36 trillion (£28.5 trillion), corresponding to US$107,227 (£84,795) per US citizen.

This figure is based on the US total public debt series. It is undeniable that the US debt has grown remarkably since the 2008 recession, with a further acceleration during the COVID pandemic. This brings the US federal debt in at around 121%^[5] of the size of the entire economy (GDP). For comparison, the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility puts British national debt at 99.4% of GDP^[6] in 2024.

This pattern is common across advanced economies, given the necessity to spend to support their economies during recessions.

Trump has also claimed^[7] that, as the result of this alleged fraud, the US might have less debt than was thought. Potential fraud aside, it is common knowledge^[8] that the headline debt figure overstates the amount of federal debt. This is because it includes debt that one part of the US government owes to another part, as well as debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks^[9].

Subtracting these debts from the US federal debt data gives us the debt held by the public. This is much lower but it still shows a similar growing pattern over time.

How US national debt has grown as a share of GDP:

The conventional wisdom (courtesy of Mr Micawber, a character in Charles Dickens’^[11] novel David Copperfield) is that an income greater than expenditure equals happiness, while the opposite results in misery. But this does not necessarily apply to public debt.

This is ultimately a debt we have with ourselves (and our future generations). What really matters is its long-term sustainability, meaning that the debt-to-GDP ratio is not following an explosive pattern. This kind of pattern could increase the risk premium (effectively the interest) demanded by investors, with a negative impact on private investments and growth prospects. Also, it potentially raises the risk of default.

Our research^[12] has shown^[13] that there is no universally accepted threshold where debt becomes unsustainable. Instead, each case requires context-specific analysis looking at macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and unemployment, financial crises as well as the (potentially self-fulfilling) market expectations.

Recently, Trump has questioned not only the size of federal debt but also the integrity of the methods used to calculate it, without presenting any evidence. He claims that the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency^[14] (Doge) has uncovered potential fraud^[15]. If confirmed, these findings could significantly alter perceptions of the country’s financial position.

Reports^[16] have also highlighted his controversial allegation that the US is “not that rich right now. We owe US$36 trillion … because we let all these nations take advantage of us.” These claims are puzzling, as the large size of US debt reflects decades of fiscal policy decisions in the wake of numerous shocks to the economy. Debt itself is not a cause of alarm for analysts^[17].

While the amount of US federal debt held by foreign stakeholders^[18] has risen over time, it is currently less than 30% of GDP. This is down from an all-time high of 35%^[19] during Trump’s first term back in 2020 during the pandemic.

Of the US federal debt held by foreign countries, the largest amounts are owned by Japan, China, and the UK^[20]. Yet, when other countries hold US federal debt, it has nothing to do with “taking advantage” of the US.

In fact, the US dollar is the world’s dominant vehicle currency. It is on one side of 88% of all trades^[21] in the foreign exchange market, which has a global daily turnover of US$7.5 trillion^[22].

As such, the US benefits from a so-called “exorbitant privilege”^[23]. This advantage comes from the international demand for the “safe haven” status of US Treasury securities and the US dollar, and has allowed the US to issue debt at a relatively low interest rate.

Research^[24] suggests that this “safe haven” status of the US dollar has increased the maximum sustainable debt for the US by around 22%. What’s more, it’s estimated to have saved the US government 0.7% of GDP in annual interest payments.

These advantages rely on the fact that US Treasury bonds are traditionally viewed as risk-free assets. This is particularly the case during times of global financial stress, as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. The US has a longstanding record of meeting its debt obligations.

But Trump’s comments risk shaking the confidence of financial markets, leading traders to reassess the reliability of official data and the potential risks associated with US Treasury bonds. Whether truth or tale, such remarks touch on sensitive issues regarding fiscal responsibility and transparency in government.

Any suggestion that the US government’s debt figures are unreliable could be destabilising. This is because they could call into question the reliability of the US fiscal system among the international investors and foreign governments that hold these securities.

Much like Trump’s tariff threats^[25], alleging other countries who hold a substantial portion of US federal debt have been opportunistic could be risky.

The president could end up straining diplomatic bilateral relations with key creditors, which may cause broader uncertainties in global financial markets.

With Trump in the White House, distinguishing between politically charged rhetoric and fiscal sustainability of the US federal debt will be essential for maintaining trust in the US economy and the health of the global financial system.

References

1. ^{^} challenging (www.reuters.com)
2. ^{^} possible fraud (www.theguardian.com)
3. ^{^} federal debt (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)
4. ^{^} debt clock (www.usdebtclock.org)
5. ^{^} 121% (www.investopedia.com)
6. ^{^} 99.4% of GDP (obr.uk)
7. ^{^} claimed (www.reuters.com)
8. ^{^} common knowledge (fredblog.stlouisfed.org)
9. ^{^} Federal Reserve Banks (www.federalreserve.gov)
10. ^{^} US Department of the Treasury. Fiscal Service, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt [GFDEBTN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN and Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (fred.stlouisfed.org)
11. ^{^} Charles Dickens’ (www.telegraph.co.uk)
12. ^{^} research (www.ecb.europa.eu)
13. ^{^} shown (researchportal.port.ac.uk)
14. ^{^} Department of Government Efficiency (doge.gov)
15. ^{^} uncovered potential fraud (fortune.com)
16. ^{^} Reports (www.newsweek.com)
17. ^{^} alarm for analysts (www.reuters.com)
18. ^{^} foreign stakeholders (crsreports.congress.gov)
19. ^{^} 35% (crsreports.congress.gov)
20. ^{^} Japan, China, and the UK (www.newsweek.com)
21. ^{^} 88% of all trades (www.bis.org)
22. ^{^} US$7.5 trillion (www.bis.org)
23. ^{^} “exorbitant privilege” (www.ecb.europa.eu)
24. ^{^} Research (cepr.org)
25. ^{^} tariff threats (theconversation.com)